Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1041

   Mesoscale Discussion 1041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0924 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301424Z - 301600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong to locally severe wind gusts (45-60 mph)
   are possible with an eastward-moving storm cluster over the next
   couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...A decaying MCS has recently shown signs of localized
   intensification as it tracks eastward toward the Upper TX Coast.
   This is likely in response to a re-orientation of the leading gust
   front to a north-south direction -- which is orthogonal to around 30
   kt of effective shear. Given this favorable orientation, and modest
   heating of a very moist boundary layer (upper 70s dewpoints), a
   couple strong to locally severe gusts (45-60 mph) cannot be ruled
   out over the next couple hours. Current thinking is that the overall
   severe risk will remain too isolated for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

   LAT...LON   29329627 29569612 29739577 29779526 29699487 29319476
               28669557 28499628 28719652 29329627 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN