Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1026

   Mesoscale Discussion 1026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Far West Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282038Z - 282215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for large hail this
   afternoon and evening across portions of Far West Texas.

   DISCUSSION...SPC mesoanalysis has indicated that inhibition has
   mostly eroded across portions of Far West Texas and some towers have
   started to develop over the Davis Mountains. Current visible
   satellite data suggests that any convection this afternoon/evening
   will likely be confined to the Davis Mountain vicinity. As
   destabilization continues this afternoon, expect at least one storm,
   potentially a few storms, to develop over the higher terrain. RAP
   forecast soundings and SPC mesoanalysis indicate effective shear
   around 30 to 35 knots which could support a supercell threat. Large
   hail will likely be the primary threat with storms quickly weakening
   after peak heating. 

   If a few strong storms develop with a threat which may persist for
   several hours, a severe thunderstorm watch may be necessary, but
   more than isolated coverage and a short duration threat seems
   questionable at this time.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29950426 31090447 31600397 31580272 31200236 29960224
               29750273 29780386 29950426 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN