Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1025

   Mesoscale Discussion 1025
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Areas affected...Far southeast Colorado...far southwest Kansas...and
   the Oklahoma Panhandle

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 342...

   Valid 282034Z - 282130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 342 continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed in far southeastern Colorado
   and the far western Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon, with an
   additional cluster of thunderstorms moving from far northwest
   Kansas/eastern Colorado due southeast. These thunderstorms will be
   capable of all hazards, including tornadoes -- particularly across
   southern portions of WW 342 in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms in the Oklahoma Panhandle/southwest
   Kansas have developed west of an environment characterized by rich
   boundary-layer moisture (mixing ratios ~13-14 g/kg), 35-40 kts of
   deep-layer shear, and southeasterly surface winds. VAD wind profiles
   from KDDC show some low-level curvature of the hodograph that will
   support stronger low-level mesocyclones and potential tornado
   development, and low-level shear is expected to increase into the
   evening with the nocturnal low-level jet around and after sunset.
   While convective interactions in the short term lead to some
   uncertainty, the expectation is that any isolated/strong supercells
   that emerge from the convective clusters will have increased tornado
   potential heading into this evening. 

   Further north in eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, a cluster of
   convection is moving south-southeastward through WW 342. These
   storms will be moving into an increasingly unstable and sheared
   environment, though current KGLD VAD wind profiles show mostly
   straight-line hodographs that would favor splitting supercell
   thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of all hazards, with the
   threat increasing as they continue to progress south and east with
   time.

   ..Halbert.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37530030 37200017 36910012 36750035 36610071 36590131
               36630169 36870192 37060213 37160273 37380293 37810281
               38330259 38810248 39130247 39380256 39590228 39450165
               39200135 38970124 38530100 38120069 37760041 37530030 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN