Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1021

   Mesoscale Discussion 1021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025

   Areas affected...central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 280837Z - 281000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong gusts and hail are possible with a cluster of
   strong storms moving east over the central TX.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has intensified to the west of the
   I-35 corridor/greater San Antonio area early this morning. This
   activity is occurring within a moderately unstable airmass amid 40
   kt effective shear magnitudes. Radar trends have shows some
   indication of strong outflow gusts associated with this cluster,
   though KERV only gusted to around 27kt as the core of these stronger
   velocity signatures passed just south of the observation site.
   Nevertheless, some strong gusts and perhaps hail will be possible as
   the cluster approached the I-35 corridor over the next hour or so.
   Given a lack of stronger forcing, and the absence of a low-level
   jet, it is unclear how long this cluster may maintain its current
   intensity. Overall, severe potential should remain limited and a
   watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30219904 30139789 29799747 29529741 29259771 29149822
               29249874 29349920 29549939 30219904 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN