Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1016

   Mesoscale Discussion 1016
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0741 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

   Valid 280041Z - 280145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of
   southwestern Texas with potential for large hail and severe wind.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has been ongoing across the Davis
   Mountains to the Stockton and Edwards Plateaus this evening. Hail as
   large as 1.25" has been reported. Overall, storm mode has been
   becoming less organized. Nonetheless, storms continue to pose some
   risk for large hail at times and severe wind, given the steep lapse
   rates and dew point depressions. 

   Storms should continue to develop and slowly drift eastward and
   northward through the rest of the evening. Storm are approaching the
   northern end of WW338 in the next hour, with remnant outflow
   observed across the area near Midland which may aid in further
   development/intensification. A local extension may be needed to
   cover the threat.

   ..Thornton.. 05/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30970421 31750387 32010328 31990247 31890161 31550119
               31090098 30700093 30050086 29560087 29130102 29170109
               29500142 29660182 29670219 29670247 29490271 29440292
               29450305 30970421 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN