Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1003

   Mesoscale Discussion 1003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

   Valid 270357Z - 270530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts should persist overnight
   with the forward-propagating portion of an extensive QLCS moving
   east across southeast Texas.

   DISCUSSION...The eastern flank of a broad arcing QLCS has been
   steadily progressing east at 35-40 kts. Despite earlier intense
   radar wind signatures, measured severe gusts have seemingly peaked
   around 50 kts with numerous strong, sub-severe gusts along the line.
   The forward-propagating portion of the QLCS may become detached from
   the trailing very deep convective cores along its southwest flank
   over the Brush Country of south TX. Prior convective overturning
   from earlier in the day activity, well sampled by the 00Z LCH/SHV
   soundings, suggests the northeast portion of the QLCS should
   struggle amid weak instability. Modification atop the prior outflow
   is underway per strong low-level southerlies in the CRP VWP and
   moderate southwesterlies in the HGX VWP. This suggests the greatest
   damaging wind potential may lie to the cool side of the pronounced
   MLCAPE gradient across northern parts of the Houston Metro towards
   Beaumont.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31649514 31589426 30989360 30819358 30049381 29849405
               29509459 29579519 29589572 29739634 30009665 30479617
               31009574 31649514 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN