Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 998

   Mesoscale Discussion 0998
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...south-central/southeast TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 331...

   Valid 270016Z - 270145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 331 continues.

   SUMMARY...Downstream WW issuance is likely to the east of WW 331.
   Primary uncertainty is with the northern extent of the severe
   threat. Large hail, severe wind swaths, and a tornado or two are
   more likely with southern extent.

   DISCUSSION...A messy/complex convective evolution continues within
   WW 331. An intense long-lived supercell persists along the southeast
   portion of the broader central TX convective plume. Short-term
   guidance remains insistent on increasing MCS development into late
   evening. Low-level warm theta-e advection will strengthen atop both
   a large-scale outflow boundary that extends southeast towards
   Matagorda Bay and the primary quasi-stationary front that extends
   east-northeast through TPL to just south of LFK. Greatest severe
   wind and tornado or two potential will probably evolve more
   east-southeast along the remnant outflow boundary. Large hail and
   some damaging wind threat may extend between that corridor to the
   quasi-stationary front.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30729812 31119802 31369735 31379644 31119616 30839593
               30479589 29659610 28939681 28879720 29009782 29319882
               29859883 30729812 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN