Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 992

   Mesoscale Discussion 0992
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261945Z - 262115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for
   some hail and damaging gusts this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Across parts of the eastern TX Panhandle and western
   OK, a myriad of complex surface boundaries were observed in the post
   MCS air mass. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along several of
   these boundaries this afternoon as surface heating is contributing
   to some air mass recovery/destabilization. The environment across
   parts of the Panhandle and western OK ahead of a shortwave trough is
   favorable for additional storm development, with around 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE and 35-45 kt of effective shear. Isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms, in the form of clusters or semi-discrete cells, could
   pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts and some hail this
   afternoon. Confidence in the coverage of severe storms is low as the
   air mass is still recovering and forcing is not overly robust.
   However, some clustering of storms may eventually result in a more
   focused severe risk according to hi-res guidance. Conditions are
   being monitored for a possible watch.

   ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34870131 35860067 36649990 36479792 35769767 34589918
               34230031 34410109 34870131 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN