Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 988

   Mesoscale Discussion 0988
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

   Areas affected...east-central LA...southwest into southern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 261557Z - 261800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A limited threat for strong/locally damaging gusts
   seemingly exists in the near term through midday.  The risk for
   damaging gusts may increase this afternoon in the vicinity of prior
   outflow/differential heating boundary, but the prospect for damaging
   gusts remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Radar/visible-satellite mosaic shows a squall line
   extending from far southeast AR south-southwestward into
   west-central LA.  Surface analysis places a remnant outflow
   boundary/differential heating zone draped from east to west over the
   southern tier of counties in southern MS westward into east-central
   LA.  South of the boundary temperatures are warming into the mid 80s
   deg F with mid 70s dewpoints, and rain-cooled temperatures are in
   the lower 70s north of the boundary in northeast LA and adjacent
   portions of western MS.

   An MCV associated with the linear MCS will continue eastward through
   the lower MS Valley this afternoon.  Some filtered heating through a
   thin cirrus canopy ahead of the line will act to slowly destabilize
   the boundary layer near and south of I-20.  Given a gradual increase
   in instability through the early to mid afternoon, expecting a slow
   strengthening in storm intensity along the gust front.  A few of the
   stronger storms may pose an isolated risk for strong to locally
   severe gusts (50-60 mph).  There remains some uncertainty on the
   spatial extent and magnitude of the potential strong/severe risk
   during the afternoon.  Will monitor convective trends for the
   possibility of a small and targeted severe thunderstorm watch across
   portions of southern MS.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32259226 32489187 32268965 31978924 31368923 30928973
               31009263 31169280 32259226 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH