Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 979

   Mesoscale Discussion 0979
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0703 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast AR...northern/central MS/AL...extreme
   southern TN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...324...

   Valid 260003Z - 260130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322, 324
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will spread east-southeastward with
   time. Strong to isolated severe cells remain possible ahead of the
   primary convective line.

   DISCUSSION...An extensive southwest to northeast oriented convective
   line has developed from southeast AR into northern MS and southwest
   TN, with some increase in stronger cells noted ahead of the line
   into northeast MS and northern AL. Moderate to strong buoyancy is in
   place downstream of the main convective line, along/south of an
   outflow-reinforced front across northern MS/AL. Deep-layer shear is
   rather modest, but given the favorable thermodynamics and evidence
   of a strengthening cold pool, a threat for isolated to scattered
   damaging winds will likely accompany this line as it moves
   east-southeastward this evening. A swath of more concentrated wind
   damage will be possible if any bowing segments can evolve within the
   broader linear structure. 

   Ahead of the line, effective shear of 25-35 kt will be sufficient
   for organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two, with a
   threat of isolated hail and strong gusts. A brief tornado threat
   also cannot be ruled out, especially where any stronger cells merge
   into the broader convective line. WW 324 has been expanded to cover
   the short-term threat across parts of AL. New watch issuance is
   possible later this evening, if trends support a continued threat
   into late tonight as convection spreads east-southeastward.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33759149 34358994 35228870 35168723 34928591 33908546
               33468586 32288794 32229042 32549116 32839148 33269176
               33399174 33759149 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN