Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 966

   Mesoscale Discussion 0966
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...TX Low Rolling Plains/Caprock

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251753Z - 252000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Monitoring for Convective Initiation in the vicinity of
   the Caprock (130-330pm CDT/1830-2030z).  A Watch will likely be
   needed soon once the cap has eroded and storm development is
   underway or imminent.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling/towering
   cumulus field over the Low Rolling Plains/Caprock, which is located
   in the vicinity of a wind shift that arcs generally westward from
   southwest OK to the I-27 corridor between Amarillo and Lubbock.  A
   triple point is analyzed near Plainview with a dryline extending
   southward into the Permian Basin.  Surface analysis indicates a
   reservoir of 65-70 deg F dewpoints is located immediately east of
   I-27 eastward into the Low Rolling Plains east of the Caprock. 
   Strong surface heating is resulting in temperatures rising to around
   90 deg F near Lubbock and into the lower 80s north of the wind shift
   near the TX/southwest OK border.  

   Recent model guidance suggests the erosion of the remaining
   appreciable convective inhibition will occur over the next 1-3 hours
   east of the triple point along the wind shift.  Once convective
   initiation occurs, a very to extremely unstable airmass (3500-4500
   J/kg MLCAPE) will result in explosive thunderstorm development. 
   Large veering of the wind profile will act to partially compensate
   for moderate mid to high-level southwesterlies and favor supercells
   early in the convective life cycle.  The very steep 700-500 mb lapse
   rates will promote large to giant hail growth.  Easterly low-level
   flow near and behind the modified wind shift will augment
   SRH/enlarge hodographs supporting some tornado risk.  As additional
   storms develop later this afternoon through the evening, there is
   high confidence in upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe
   gusts becoming the primary threat mid-late evening into the early
   overnight.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33500028 33510073 34270183 34530185 34810167 34790135
               34350082 34050019 33740006 33500028 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN