Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 965

   Mesoscale Discussion 0965
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025

   Areas affected...southern KS into northern OK and northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

   Valid 251024Z - 251200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind gusts and hail remain possible across
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321 the next couple of hours. Local watch
   extensions may be needed depending on short term trends.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms tracking east across southwest KS has
   mostly remained sub-severe early this morning. However, a recent
   measured gust to 88 mph in Hodgeman County KS was noted as an
   embedded supercell within the line intensified. This activity will
   continue to shift east/southeast ahead of a southeastward advancing
   cold front, and along the MUCAPE gradient oriented across southern
   KS/northern OK. Sporadic severe gusts and hail may occur with this
   activity in the short term. 

   Further southeast, an organized, but elevated cluster of storms is
   moving across northeast OK into northwest AR within a warm advection
   regime atop the nearly stationary surface front draped across
   northern OK. This activity has mostly remained sub-severe, but
   earlier produced marginally severe hail and gusts in the 40-50 mph
   range. A strongly sheared and unstable airmass remains downstream,
   and some severe potential could persist another couple of hours. 

   Depending on short-term trends, local extensions in time to WW 321,
   or a new severe thunderstorm watch could be needed, though this
   remains uncertain.

   ..Leitman.. 05/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38499978 37929712 36739499 36249399 35829350 35509347
               35279363 35199388 35229438 35379535 35649611 36479728
               36739867 36839914 37100011 37240053 37510072 38499978 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN