Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 953

   Mesoscale Discussion 0953
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...Colorado Front Range

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241824Z - 242030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Recent satellite trends have shown convective development
   over the Rockies/Colorado Front Range as afternoon heating and
   boundary layer mixing have destabilized the environment. Potential
   exists for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two
   this afternoon and evening, with possible watch issuance needed.

   DISCUSSION...With initial signs of convective development evident on
   visible satellite imagery, the expectations is for storm coverage
   and intensity to increase during the afternoon and into the evening.
   As storms move from the higher terrain onto the front range and
   plains of Colorado, they will enter an unstable environment with
   40-50 kts of westerly effective bulk shear, supporting supercell
   development. The expectation is that the primary threat will be for
   large hail and damaging winds, though forecast profiles and VAD wind
   profiles from the KDEN radar site, along with 18Z ACARS sounding
   retrievals, indicate there is a non-zero chance for tornado
   occurrence. Easterly surface winds with a generally westerly storm
   motion result in some modest curvature of the low-level hodograph
   and enhancement of environmental streamwise vorticity that could
   favor tornado development.

   ..Halbert/Guyer.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38110348 37480364 37220391 37300438 37570487 38020538
               38820563 39620563 40050531 40010469 39810413 39230372
               38110348 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN