Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 951

   Mesoscale Discussion 0951
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...The ArkLaTex and far southeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...

   Valid 241701Z - 241800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts continues across WW316.

   DISCUSSION...As of 17 UTC, regional radar analysis shows the ongoing
   MCS over southeast OK and the ArkLaTex continues. Some weakening has
   been noted with warming cloud tops and a general decrease in line
   reflectivity. However, the severe risk likely continues as a
   substantial cold pool and weak MCV have formed. As the density
   current continues to propagate along the northwest to southeast
   oriented baroclinic zone over the lower MS Valley, damaging gusts
   will remain possible. Occasional redevelopment along the
   southern-most portions of the cluster is expected as it propagate
   towards the more unstable air mass along the AR/LA border. Thus, the
   damaging wind risk will continue over portions of WW316.

   ..Lyons.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34089524 34059472 33849361 34329257 34869181 34879150
               34549080 33689088 33099121 32979287 33069438 33659530
               34089524 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN