Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 948

   Mesoscale Discussion 0948
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

   Areas affected...south-central and southeast KS into northern and
   central OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314...

   Valid 240647Z - 240815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible with thunderstorm clusters
   across Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. A
   greater damaging wind risk may develop over the next couple hours as
   an organizing cluster moves southeast across south-central KS into
   northern OK.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters are ongoing early this morning
   across portions of central into northeast OK, southeast KS and
   southwest MO within a warm advection regime atop an EML between
   850-700 mb. This activity may sporadically intensify and produce
   hail up to 1.25 inch diameter given 7.5-8.5 C/km midlevel lapse
   rates and strong MUCAPE. While effective shear is quite good,
   updrafts are likely not taking full advantage of favorable low-level
   shear typically conducive for supercell development, tempering the
   overall risk with these thunderstorm clusters. 

   Upstream across southwest KS, and within Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   314, an organizing cluster of storms will continue to shift
   east/southeast toward south-central KS/north-central OK over the
   next few hours. This activity will track along the theta-e/MUCAPE
   instability gradient, and on the nose of a 30-40 kt low-level jet.
   While radar trends have shown outflow just ahead of this cluster,
   there is some potential new updrafts could develop along the
   outflow, or convection could ingest the outflow as the bowing
   cluster continues to organize and intensify as it tracks into better
   instability/low-level moisture with southeast extent. Depending on
   short-term trends, a new watch may be needed downstream of WW 314
   across portions of northern OK/southeast KS and vicinity.

   ..Leitman.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38269902 37609635 36979429 36349452 35029556 35009687
               35049740 35739792 37059907 37519959 37939952 38269902 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN