Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 947

   Mesoscale Discussion 0947
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...central/eastern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 240436Z - 240530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Highly elevated convection across central Oklahoma may
   yield an isolated, likely lower-end severe hail threat through the
   early morning hours. A greater severe threat is expected to develop
   out of Kansas later in the morning.

   DISCUSSION...Highly elevated convection that appears to be rooted
   around 700 mb has increased across central OK over the past half
   hour. CAMs that well-simulated this development such as the 00Z
   NSSL-MPAS and 02Z RRFS indicate that cells may struggle to greatly
   intensify despite the presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates
   and ample elevated buoyancy. This may be due to weaker effective
   bulk shear for parcels rooted near 700 mb. As such, there is
   uncertainty regarding how sustained a large hail threat may be. An
   MCS still appears likely to emanate out of southwest and
   south-central KS later in the pre-dawn hours, which should result in
   a greater severe risk for north-central to northeast OK.

   ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36049813 36599791 36529693 36449638 36069538 35579533
               35199560 35049618 35009734 35169787 36049813 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN