Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 943

   Mesoscale Discussion 0943
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0726 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

   Areas affected...eastern CO and northwest KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313...

   Valid 240026Z - 240230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Primary supercell in northeast Colorado may persist to the
   south-southeast, while an additional supercell should become
   sustained along the east-central Colorado to northwest Kansas
   border. Sporadic brief tornadoes, large hail, and localized severe
   gusts remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...GOES MDS first illustrated downstream development ahead
   of an intense supercell over northeast CO. This temporarily
   disrupted the earlier intense mesocyclone, and now appears to have
   had a handoff to another mesocyclone on its southwest flank. Cooler
   surface temperatures and substantially increasing MLCIN with eastern
   extent would suggest that this cell should track southeast but may
   eventually be limited by outflows emanating from downstream
   convection over east-central CO. This southern activity has largely
   struggled thus far, but appears to be consolidating to a couple
   sustained updrafts along/south of I-70. One or both of these could
   become the dominant supercells in the next couple hours given
   unimpeded inflow of higher theta-e.

   ..Grams.. 05/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40520287 40210253 39790222 39280149 38760151 38330172
               38370227 38580279 38930296 39270297 39990320 40400326
               40520287 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN