Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 937

   Mesoscale Discussion 0937
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0819 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...northeastern Colorado...western
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230119Z - 230215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind and hail risk possible over the next couple
   of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms have developed and
   strengthened across eastern Wyoming near a gradient of MLCAPE around
   250-500 J/kg. Within this region, moisture and forcing remains
   overall limited, with dew points in the upper 40s to 50s. Lack of
   deeper moisture, loss of daytime heating, and lack upper level
   support will likely keep the overall severe threat low. Given deep
   layer shear around 45-50 kts, a few briefly organized storms may
   produce instances of hail and gusty wind will be possible,however, a
   watch is unlikely to be needed.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 05/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41070474 41720461 42000410 41870318 41720312 40980319
               40340340 40210412 40710474 41070474 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN