Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 936

   Mesoscale Discussion 0936
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...the Big Country/Concho Valley to central TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 230006Z - 230130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/wind threat should persist through at
   least mid-evening as a linear cluster spreads across the Big
   Country, Concho Valley, and central Texas. The need for a downstream
   severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Amalgamating convective outflows from earlier
   supercells have congealed over western north TX and adjacent Low
   Rolling Plains. Despite a minimum in buoyancy across the Big
   Country, low-level southeasterlies have begun strengthening per the
   DYX VWP. This should result in greater low-level moisture across
   central TX eventually being advected ahead of the line after sunset.
   But this initial dry pocket lowers overall confidence in what
   otherwise should be a more favorable setup to maintain an organized
   severe wind threat through the rest of the evening. As such, the
   need for a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is uncertain.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 05/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32070121 32570024 33059951 33409925 33379866 33039814
               32489728 32219726 31979729 31579761 31239811 31119873
               31129991 31250045 31540119 32070121 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN