Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 934

   Mesoscale Discussion 0934
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...north to west TX and far southern OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 222200Z - 230000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts will
   likely persist through early evening across a swath of north to west
   Texas and adjacent southern Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells are ongoing, including left and
   right splits, mainly centered on far southwest OK into western north
   TX with a couple isolated ones near the Lower Pecos Valley. Large
   hail has been the primary hazard thus far and will likely continue
   over the next few hours amid a favorable deep-layer shear regime,
   well sampled by the FDR VWP. With time, activity should attempt to
   merge into a forward-propagating cluster, seemingly emanating out of
   the western north TX supercells. But downstream of this regime in
   the Big Country is a dry pocket evident in surface obs, visible
   satellite imagery, and RAP-based mesoanalysis. As such, it may take
   a few more hours for more organized clustering to evolve, as that
   buoyancy minima is eroded with increasing low-level southeasterlies
   towards/after sunset.

   ..Grams.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34120089 34359995 34419853 34449788 34449704 34289684
               34029690 33799750 33599834 33569859 33309904 33039915
               32579966 32340042 31800108 31230126 30850214 32080184
               32950128 33200095 34120089 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN