Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 931

   Mesoscale Discussion 0931
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...parts of western North Texas and adjacent
   southwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221844Z - 222045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development may initiate west through
   southwest of the Wichita Falls area during the next hour or two. 
   Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a new severe
   weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing to the
   west-southwest of Wichita Falls TX, where a corridor of stronger
   heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing has contributed to weakening
   inhibition for boundary-layer parcels characterized by CAPE up to
   3000 J/kg.  At the same time, southwestward propagating gravity
   waves and outflow, generated by the more intense earlier convection
   southwest of Ardmore OK, are approaching from the northwest and
   could support at least isolated intensifying thunderstorm
   development during the next hour or two.  In the presence of
   moderate to strong west-northwesterly deep layer shear, this may
   include an evolving supercell posing a risk for large hail and
   strong damaging wind gusts.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33919977 34309889 34069831 33509816 33249849 33189937
               33049978 33340014 33919977 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN