Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 930

   Mesoscale Discussion 0930
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

   Areas affected...Central and Southern FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221749Z - 221945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts
   and hail are possible across the central and southern FL Peninsula
   this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows building cumulus
   across much of the central and southern FL Peninsula, with the most
   vertically developed cumulus across the west-central peninsula,
   along a weak, southward-progressing cold front. Notable deepening is
   occurring along the east coast sea breeze as well. Expectation is
   for increasing thunderstorm coverage throughout the afternoon along
   both of these boundaries. Seasonably cold mid-level temperatures
   (i.e. -9 to -10 deg C at 500 mb) coupled with modest westerly flow
   aloft could support a few more organized updrafts capable of
   damaging gust and isolated hail. Even so, the prevailing storm mode
   will likely be multicellular, with limited updraft strength and
   duration, keeping the overall severe potential isolated.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25607998 25488060 25598090 25908128 26168152 26638180
               27118223 27718169 28098043 26857998 25607998 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN