Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 916

   Mesoscale Discussion 0916
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central Mississippi into far eastern
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...

   Valid 210158Z - 210400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307 continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized severe risk continues across parts of central
   Mississippi into far eastern Louisiana in Tornado Watch 307. The
   primary concerns have become damaging wind gusts and large hail,
   though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out -- especially over
   central Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front
   extending from central MS into central LA, a small cluster of severe
   storms continues moving slowly east-southeastward across central MS,
   while a separate supercell structure has recently evolved over far
   east-central LA. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist
   boundary layer (sampled by LCH/JAN 00Z soundings) is still
   contributing to moderate surface-based instability ahead of these
   storms. This, combined with around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per VWPs),
   will continue to support the ongoing severe storms as they continue
   east-southeastward over the next few hours. Given the ongoing storm
   mode, damaging winds and large hail have become the primary
   concerns. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially
   with the ongoing cluster of storms over central MS (which has
   recently exhibited supercellular structure) -- given around 250
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per DGX VWP data).

   ..Weinman.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32839064 32949018 33108925 33068876 32908844 32518847
               32288871 32048965 31569057 31199127 31069167 31189205
               31429209 31659186 32639096 32839064 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN