Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 914

   Mesoscale Discussion 0914
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

   Valid 210012Z - 210145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail and locally damaging gusts remain possible
   across parts of central Louisiana -- within Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 306. While a localized severe risk may spread southward out of
   the watch, a downstream watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a couple deep/embedded
   cores is ongoing across central Louisiana along the tail-end of a
   cold front draped across the region. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear
   (per POE VWP data) oriented mostly parallel to the front is favoring
   congealing of cold pools, though the strong shear and around 3000
   J/kg MLCAPE is yielding robust embedded updrafts. Severe hail and
   locally damaging wind gusts remain possible with this activity. With
   time, storms may spread southward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   306. While there may be a continued localized severe risk, current
   thinking is that the overall risk will likely remain too
   isolated/limited for a downstream watch -- especially given weak
   large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal static
   stability.

   ..Weinman.. 05/21/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31279385 31599352 31869297 32019232 32029190 31899166
               31599147 31229185 30919294 30839340 30969375 31279385 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN