Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 908

   Mesoscale Discussion 0908
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas to the Tennessee River Valley

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...305...

   Valid 202033Z - 202230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303, 305 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and tornadoes continues across
   watches 303 and 305, though the potential for widespread damaging
   winds is expected to increase over the next 2-3 hours across for
   parts of northwest TN and far southwest KY. The greatest
   hail/tornado threat will likely be focused across southeast AR into
   northeast MS and parts of middle TN.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue to mature across eastern
   AR with more isolated to scattered coverage across northern MS into
   western/middle TN. Convective coverage/close storm proximity has
   resulted in destructive interactions of the past hour across
   northeast AR, and recent velocity imagery from KNQA shows signs of
   consolidating outflow across northeast AR. This suggests that the
   early stages of upscale growth is occurring and may promote an
   increasing damaging/severe wind threat downstream into parts of
   western TN and west/southwest KY. Strong low-level shear sampled by
   the KQNA VWP hints that even with this storm mode transition,
   embedded circulations will be possible as the line becomes more
   organized. 

   Further east and south, more isolated to scattered storm coverage
   has yielded more discrete supercells. Large hail up to golf ball
   size has already been reported, and with a very buoyant and strongly
   sheared environment still in place downstream, very large hail will
   remain a concern for far southeast AR, northern MS, and parts of
   middle TN. Recent WoFS guidance suggests hail sizes between 2 to 2.5
   inches will be possible with these cells over the next couple of
   hours. These discrete storms are beginning to display organized
   mesocyclones and will continue to migrate across a warm sector with
   STP values between 2-3, suggesting that the tornado threat
   (including the potential for a strong tornado) is likely increasing
   with these cells.

   ..Moore.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34088855 33428979 33209028 33019114 33049165 33079194
               33359194 33829166 34439133 35379044 35948999 36658954
               37048932 37318833 37278790 37158752 36998732 36608724
               35678728 34978759 34568788 34348822 34088855 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN