Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 900

   Mesoscale Discussion 0900
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0421 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Texas...northwest Louisiana...into
   central/eastern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...

   Valid 200921Z - 201015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to fluctuate in their
   intensity through the morning, episodically reaching an intensity
   level capable of damaging thunderstorm winds. A local extension to
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch #300 was coordinated with WFO Little Rock.

   DISCUSSION...Several clusters/lines of thunderstorms are exiting
   northeast Texas moving into northwest Louisiana/southwest Arkansas
   and across central Arkansas. The storms remain in a favorable
   environment for severe (MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg and effective
   shear around 50 knots. As we approach the diurnal minimum in the
   convective cycle, and as the storms continue to pull away from the
   best large-scale forcing for ascent, the long-term trend in
   thunderstorms intensity had been down. However, recent reflectivity
   and velocity data from area radars has shown an uptick in intensity
   across area.

   The expectation is that thunderstorm updrafts will continue to
   episodically pose a risk for small hail, and more likely for
   damaging wind gusts for at least another couple of hours.

   A local extension in space for existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   #300 was coordinated with WFO Little Rock to add additional areas of
   Arkansas to the watch.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32629569 34459399 35639256 35599101 33999110 33739260
               32619331 32629569 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN