Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 898

   Mesoscale Discussion 0898
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0107 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern Missouri...southeast
   Illinois...southwest Indiana...and western Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 200607Z - 200730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Wind damage and QLCS tornado threat may persist east of
   Tornado Watch 298. An extension in space of the existing watch or a
   new watch may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived linear MCS continues to move east across
   Missouri this morning. This MCS has a history of producing sporadic
   wind damage along with transient to slightly longer lived low-level
   circulations/QLCS tornadoes.

   The environment along the path of the MCS Monday evening was
   unstable and highly sheared. SPC mesoanalysis shows the environment
   ahead of the MCS remains highly sheared -- 40-50 knots effective
   deep-layer shear -- and remains unstable -- with mixed-layer CAPE
   between 1000-2000 J/kg. SPC Mesoanalysis also shows that this region
   is a relative minimum in convective inhibition, which would support
   a continued wind threat/QLCS tornado threat.

   Either a local extension of Tornado Watch 298 or a new watch will
   likely be needed within the next hour.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36638986 38259047 39128961 39168804 38768717 37658669
               36738695 36638986 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN