Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 899

   Mesoscale Discussion 0899
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

   Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas...northeast
   Texas...and northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 200621Z - 200715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of wind and hail continue to move
   east this morning. As they approach the edge of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 299, a new watch or extension in space/time of Tornado Watch
   297 will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue across southeast Oklahoma and
   northern Texas where the airmass has either recovered a bit from
   earlier convection (southeast OK) or was largely not impacted
   (northern Texas).

   The environment ahead of these storms remains strongly sheared and
   buoyant with effective-layer shear greater than 50 knots and
   most-unstable CAPE ranging from 2000 J/kg across portions of Texas
   to around 500 J/kg along the I40 corridor in west-central Arkansas.

   Given the ongoing organization of the thunderstorms and a favorable
   downstream environment, the potential for severe hail and wind gusts
   should exist east of existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 299. Either
   a new watch or extension in space/time of Tornado Watch 297 will
   likely be needed in the next hour.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33919626 35009599 35409483 35379307 34869218 33509233
               32389366 31969544 31909699 32589784 33479706 33919626 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN