Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 897

   Mesoscale Discussion 0897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 200440Z - 200645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may increase across parts of southeast
   Oklahoma and northeast Texas. The primary threat will be hail and
   isolated wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, convection has developed near the
   Red River to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.
   Additionally, an isolated cell has developed further north in
   southeast Oklahoma. These storms are located along an axis of
   low-level moisture and instability, where surface dewpoints are from
   the upper 60s to mid 70s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be
   from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. These storms are being supported by warm
   advection, associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet. Short-term
   model forecasts suggest that storm coverage will expand in coverage,
   as a nearly continuous line develops and moves eastward across
   southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Hail and isolated wind
   damage will be the primary threats with these storms over the next
   couple of hours.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   32599698 32599558 32919489 33669457 34249459 34869504
               35019557 35029628 34669688 33759745 33189774 32839764
               32599698 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN