Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 894

   Mesoscale Discussion 0894
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

   Valid 200158Z - 200400Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to continue for a couple more
   hours across northwest Missouri. An isolated wind damage and tornado
   threat will be possible in the short-term.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed bowing line segment is currently
   moving eastward across far northwest Missouri. The line is being
   supported by warm advection and large-scale ascent associated with a
   shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery. The RAP shows a 40
   to 45 knot low-level jet in northwest Missouri, which is helping to
   maintain a severe threat. Ahead of the line at the surface,
   dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F, and temperatures are in the
   mid 60s to lower 70s F. This should be sufficient for an isolated
   severe threat over the next 1 to 2 hours. Wind damage and a tornado
   threat will exist with this bowing line segment. However, as the
   line moves eastward into a cooler and more stable airmass across
   north-central Missouri, the severe threat with the line is expected
   to downtrend.

   ..Broyles.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38669441 38659306 39029238 39889230 40319266 40469379
               40399460 39989507 39609516 39109507 38669441 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN