Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 890

   Mesoscale Discussion 0890
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Tennessee Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200002Z - 200130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated risk of marginally severe hail and locally
   damaging wind gusts will persist for a couple hours. A watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated cellular convection is evolving in the
   vicinity of a warm front draped across the TN Valley, where earlier
   heating of a moist boundary layer (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints)
   contributed to moderate surface-based instability. An
   elongated/straight hodograph (around 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear)
   sampled by regional VWP may support marginal/brief splitting
   supercell structures -- capable of producing marginally severe hail
   and locally damaging wind gusts. However, with shortwave ridging
   across the area and loss of daytime heating, the overall severe risk
   should remain too isolated/limited for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...

   LAT...LON   34358448 34678563 35298680 36018776 36428791 36778771
               36978730 36918670 36258573 35698465 35148374 34848363
               34358396 34358448 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN