Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 874

   Mesoscale Discussion 0874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

   Areas affected...parts of central and northeast Texas...southeastern
   Oklahoma and adjacent southwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191528Z - 191730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in strong thunderstorm development appears
   possible through Noon to 2 PM CDT.  This may include evolving
   supercells, accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   large hail.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
   severe weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...A few cells have begun intensifying within a broader
   area of convective development now spreading northeast of the I-35
   corridor of central Texas.  This appears to have been initially
   supported by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with warm
   advection based near the 700 mb level, downstream of a mid/upper
   perturbation within the belt of westerlies emanating from the
   lower-latitude eastern Pacific. However, the stronger convective
   cores have probably begun to acquire updraft inflow emanating from
   the seasonably moist boundary-layer.

   The downstream downstream environment remains capped by an elevated
   mixed layer based near/above 850 mb, but is warming with insolation.
    Coupled with the forcing for ascent, erosion of the inhibition may
   allow for a substantive further increase in stronger thunderstorm
   development during the next several hours.  This may include a few
   intensifying supercells.  In the presence of at least modestly
   enlarging, clockwise curved low-level hodographs, this activity may
   become accompanied by a risk for tornadoes, in addition to large
   hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33739702 35249571 34519382 32819447 31729549 31629667
               33069712 33739702 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN