Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 853

   Mesoscale Discussion 0853
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...Central Alabama and far west-central Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181140Z - 181245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster moving across central Alabama will
   pose a threat for isolated large hail and wind damage in the near
   term. Longer term evolution of this cluster is less certain, but the
   area will continue to be monitored for potential watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Long-lived cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
   across central Alabama this morning along the instability gradient.
   The strongest of these thunderstorms (located across eastern
   Tuscaloosa County) appears to have increased in intensity over the
   last hour and has even developed a rear-inflow jet (RIJ) --
   suggested by radar reflectivity structure and an increase in
   rear-to-front wind speeds. This will pose a damaging wind threat in
   the short term.

   Additionally, overall reflectivity structure of the thunderstorm
   complex suggests the development of a mesoscale convective vortex.
   Should this be the case, an increase in updraft intensity would be
   expected in the near term owing to increasing convergence and
   stronger deep-layer shear. MUCAPE is around 1000 J/kg and deep-layer
   shear around 50 knots across the thunderstorm cluster now, but drops
   off to around 1000 J/kg and 30-40 knots as the cluster approaches
   western Georgia.

   As the thunderstorms move east, the lack of clarity of the MCV
   evolution and a slightly less favorable environment results in
   uncertainty as to whether a severe thunderstorm watch will be needed
   downstream. Conditions will continue to be monitored for potential
   watch issuance.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33668760 33848657 33438503 32818492 33038744 33668760 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN