Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 850

   Mesoscale Discussion 0850
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 180735Z - 180830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue moving east across Mississippi
   this morning. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with
   the strongest cores, but the overall threat should remain sparse
   enough to preclude the need for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms moving east out of Arkansas
   appears to have developed small mesoscale convective vortex. This
   MCV appears to be aiding thunderstorm development on its southern
   flank, where MUCAPE is between 2000-3000 J/kg. Given this
   thermodynamic environment and effective-layer shear around 50 knots,
   episodic updraft pulses may support isolated large hail or wind
   damage. However, widespread severe reports are not anticipated.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 05/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33819083 34218985 33978835 33088837 33349085 33819083 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN