Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 805

   Mesoscale Discussion 0805
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0532 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

   Areas affected...north-central Arkansas into central Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

   Valid 161032Z - 161130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue this morning across the region. The
   overall environment will support large hail and isolated severe wind
   with the strongest thunderstorms. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
   continues.

   DISCUSSION...Several areas of thunderstorms developed this morning
   across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259, and much of this activity
   continues. These thunderstorms are occurring along a slow moving
   cold front draped across Arkansas into and through Kentucky, aided
   by warm-air advection associated with the right entrance region of a
   midlevel jet/jet streak. Given most-unstable CAPE between 2000-4000
   J/kg and effective bulk shear still above 60 knots, a large hail and
   damaging wind threat will persist through the morning. Thus, the
   severe threat will continue across Watch 259.

   After the last of the existing thunderstorms (currently over
   west-central Arkansas) move east out of the watch area, additional
   thunderstorms are expected later today. All severe hazards will be
   possible with these additional thunderstorms.

   ..Marsh.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36649267 38118628 36348628 34909268 36649267 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN