Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 801

   Mesoscale Discussion 0801
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0947 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 160247Z - 160445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts will increase in the next
   couple hours with an MCS approaching from the west. A watch will
   likely be issued for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented MCS is advancing eastward at
   around 40-50 kt across western Lower MI -- with a history of severe
   wind gusts upwards of 70 mph. Around 40-50 kt of line-orthogonal
   deep-layer shear (per GRR/DTX VWP data), and middle 60s
   boundary-layer dewpoints, should continue to favor deep/intense
   updrafts along the leading-edge gust front. Given the expectation
   for this well-established system to be maintained with eastward
   extent into parts of eastern Lower MI, posing a continued risk of
   severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief/embedded tornado or two, a
   downstream watch issuance is likely for parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Gleason.. 05/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42118438 42458436 43978453 44688443 44848404 44738345
               44378298 43368272 42498281 42028312 41808366 41798415
               42118438 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN