Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 796

   Mesoscale Discussion 0796
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

   Valid 152242Z - 160015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will propagate toward coastal North
   Carolina this evening. Some risk for wind and hail continue.

   DISCUSSION...Northwesterly deep-layer flow is firmly established
   across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. Modest boundary-layer
   heating has contributed to substantial air mass destabilization and
   3000 J/kg SBCAPE has yet to be overturned across much of eastern
   North Carolina. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed from
   east of RWI to the Outer Banks region, and mean northwesterly flow
   should encourage this activity to continue propagating toward
   coastal regions. Latest radar data suggests the primary corridor of
   organized convection will continue along this axis into the
   mid-evening hours.

   ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36217723 35747461 34917523 35727761 36217723 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN