Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 783

   Mesoscale Discussion 0783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0108 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast SD...northwest
   IA...southwest MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

   Valid 150608Z - 150745Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat could spread northeast overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived storm cluster is moving northeastward
   across northeast NE and southeast SD early this morning, downstream
   of a midlevel shortwave trough and possible MCV over north-central
   NE. A rather strong low-level jet (evident on the KOAX and KFSD
   VWPs) and favorable upper-level difluence will help to maintain
   convection through the overnight hours. Moderate buoyancy will
   spread into a larger portion of eastern SD and southwest MN
   overnight, while modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue
   to support organized convection. 

   The strongest storms within this cluster will continue to be capable
   of producing isolated large hail and strong to locally severe gusts.
   Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible if more organized
   upscale growth occurs overnight, though this potential remains
   uncertain. Also, while the bulk of convection may remain somewhat
   elevated, there remains some conditional potential for
   near-surface-based supercells within the southern part of the
   cluster, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. 

   With WW 249 scheduled to expire at 3 AM CDT, new watch issuance is
   possible overnight, depending on short-term observational trends.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41569836 42179845 43439770 44719794 44939635 44539570
               44009534 43049538 42369564 41699654 41569748 41569788
               41569836 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN