Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 779

   Mesoscale Discussion 0779
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Areas affected...parts of northeast Colorado and the southern NE
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142156Z - 142330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based showers and storms moving off the higher
   terrain may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and small hail
   initially. Additional development/upscale growth could occur later
   this evening with a greater severe risk focused over northeast CO
   and southern NE. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
   showed initial high-based convection has developed across the higher
   terrain of northeastern CO and southern WY. Supported predominately
   by broad northeasterly upslope ahead of a cold front, the
   environment across northern CO is not particularity unstable (MUCAPE
   < 500 J/kg) with dewpoints in the low 30s F. However, steep low and
   mid-level lapse rates greater than 8 C/km are present. This will
   allow for an isolated severe threat initially, with potential for
   more organized storms later this evening.

   Recent CAM guidance and radar trends suggests an isolated severe
   threat (35-50 kt gusts and small hail) may persist across the I-25
   corridor over the next few hours. Given the potential for outflow
   interactions, additional storm development also appears likely. This
   may eventually result in a more coherent cluster of storms across
   northeastern CO where 40+ kt of deep-layer shear and more buoyancy
   could support greater storm organization. This may favor a greater
   risk for severe winds and hail with an organized cluster/MCS.

   While confidence in initial storm evolution and the resulting severe
   threat is low, some severe risk is likely present. Severe trends
   will continue to be monitored for a possible weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39100475 39410540 40470509 41050452 41100447 41570268
               41480197 41000169 40020173 39590229 39380337 39100475 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN