Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 758

   Mesoscale Discussion 0758
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0942 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

   Areas affected...much of the Florida Panhandle into southeast
   Alabama and southwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101442Z - 101545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage and intensity
   during the day, and a few may produce severe weather including
   brief/weak tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over southern AL
   into the western FL Panhandle, with a cold front extending south
   from the low into the northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, visible satellite
   imagery shows heating is occurring ahead of the front, in the area
   of a diffuse warm front near the FL/AL/GA border.

   Cells just offshore already show mesocyclones, and the onshore
   environment is already favorable with a deep moist boundary layer
   and 0-1 SRH from 150-250 m2/s2. Although most of the convection is
   currently well offshore, continued heating along with the presence
   of the cold front should help focus further development today, at
   least in an isolated sense. The air mass should continue to recover
   northward into most of southern GA and more of eastern AL with time
   as well, expanding the threat area northward.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30298627 30608634 31038629 31588610 31868566 32228486
               32218421 31898358 30898332 30438329 30028339 29828362
               30008398 29888426 29548500 29618536 29918551 30168592
               30298627 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN