Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1488

   Mesoscale Discussion 1488
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

   Areas affected...PA and southern NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 281451Z - 281645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong gusts will be possible into
   this afternoon as scattered thunderstorms spread east across
   Pennsylvania and a portion of southern New York. Severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated deep convection is ongoing attendant to a
   minor MCV moving east from far eastern OH. With convective
   temperatures being breached across southwest NY into western PA,
   storm coverage should increase over the next couple hours as an
   attendant outflow ahead of the MCV shifts east. Moderate lower to
   mid-level westerlies should largely be confined from the NY/PA
   border area northward per the 12Z BUF/PIT observed soundings and
   recent VWPs. Greater coverage of storms is anticipated south of this
   across PA where shear will be weaker with southern extent. Still,
   enough flow will exist for multicell clusters that have a higher
   probability of being loosely organized along the southern
   NY/northern PA border vicinity. Strong gusts from 45-60 mph
   producing isolated to scattered tree damage and small hail are the
   expected hazards.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   41108040 41647943 42427680 42407517 41557503 40367562
               39997616 39887817 40088003 40328036 41108040 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH