Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1480

   Mesoscale Discussion 1480
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0717 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...central North Dakota

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 468...

   Valid 280017Z - 280115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms ongoing across WW468 should continue to mature into
   supercells this evening. An initial risk for large to very large
   hail and damaging gusts is expected. A couple of tornadoes are
   possible later this evening as low-level flow is forecast to
   increase.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW468, satellite and radar imagery show initial
   updrafts are rapidly strengthening across ND early this evening.
   Aided by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear,
   continued intensification is expected. As convection continues to
   develop, several supercells should mature with large to very large
   hail and damaging gusts likely. The most intense storms could
   produce hail to 3-4 inches in diameter.

   Wile low-level flow remains modest initially, hodogrpahs should
   begin to expand this evening with the intensification of the
   low-level jet. This could support a risk for a couple of tornadoes
   with the more intense supercells. Additional upscale growth may also
   favor an increase in the damaging wind threat later tonight.

   ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46450232 48720165 48899921 48919834 46659815 46069906
               46050168 46450232 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN