Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1476

   Mesoscale Discussion 1476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Far eastern KY into WV...western/southern VA...NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272050Z - 272245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible into early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage and intensity over
   the last hour across parts of NC, and also from eastern KY into WV.
   Deep-layer shear is weak across the region, but buoyancy is strong,
   with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg along the western/southern periphery
   of an extensive cloud shield over the Mid Atlantic. 

   Relatively large PW and steep low-level lapse rates will support a
   risk of localized downbursts with the strongest storms. Some outflow
   consolidation is possible with time, if a sufficient concentration
   of storms can develop. This could lead to a somewhat greater chance
   for damaging wind, though this scenario remains uncertain.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
   JKL...

   LAT...LON   35167737 35148029 36378132 36888191 37208233 37788271
               38018238 38748076 38937966 38497935 37847893 37497877
               37177843 37077702 36347659 35537683 35167737 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN