Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1473

   Mesoscale Discussion 1473
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...western NE into southern SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271945Z - 272145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing, outflow-dominated convection should yield a
   threat for severe gusts along with isolated severe hail. Severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...High-based convection is increasing along the dryline
   across the NE Panhandle into far northeast CO. This activity is
   likely to persist as storm-scale convective outflows are generated
   within an initially weak deep-layer shear environment. As outflows
   impinge on progressively greater buoyancy into central NE and
   south-central SD, a threat for severe gusts may persist over the
   next several hours. Development ahead of dryline-forced convection
   is not anticipated in the near-term owing to persistent
   warm/moist-sector MLCIN, and this may curtail a greater hail threat.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42680232 41480278 40880257 40660182 41370051 42040005
               42599996 43800013 43750155 42680232 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN