Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1471

   Mesoscale Discussion 1471
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern KY...middle and eastern
   TN...northern AL...extreme northwest GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271913Z - 272115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind is possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...One cluster of storms is ongoing across parts of middle
   TN into northern AL, with another across central KY. Deep-layer
   shear is quite weak across the region, but some outflow
   consolidation has been noted with both clusters. Additional storm
   development will be possible along and to the immediate cool side of
   these outflows with time. 

   Seasonably cool temperatures aloft atop a very warm and moist
   boundary layer are resulting in MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in areas
   not already influenced by convective outflow. This very favorable
   buoyancy could lead to additional vigorous updrafts, which in turn
   could pose a threat of localized downbursts and small to near-severe
   hail through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   BMX...HUN...PAH...

   LAT...LON   34488737 34818702 35758672 35988711 36058738 36128782
               36448774 37108677 37268541 38638482 38638401 38238313
               36988328 36058358 35258410 34358562 34258675 34488737 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN