Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1470

   Mesoscale Discussion 1470
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...eastern OK...far north TX/southwest MO/northeast AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271907Z - 272100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic microbursts, capable of localized strong to
   marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph, are anticipated through the
   rest of the afternoon with slow-moving thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...Differential boundary-layer heating downstream of an
   MCV drifting east over west-central OK has aided in increasing
   thunderstorm development from a portion of the Red River Valley
   towards the Ozarks. Ample buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE around
   2500 J/kg is likely present in a convectively undisturbed corridor
   of eastern OK. With weak mid-level lapse rates yielding minimal
   capping, scattered storm coverage is anticipated through the rest of
   the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is weak per area VWP data and this
   should limit organization potential beyond pulse-type wet
   microbursts.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35349680 36109644 36659538 36649401 35859411 35169476
               34009648 33519728 33499778 33559898 33829893 34759715
               35349680 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH