Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1468

   Mesoscale Discussion 1468
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271734Z - 271930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe storms are possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are increasing in coverage early this afternoon
   along the east coast of the FL Peninsula. Deep-layer flow is
   generally weak, but some veering of low-level winds and effective
   shear in the 20-25 kt range near the sea breeze could support
   occasional modest storm organization, given favorable buoyancy
   (MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg, as noted on the 15Z XMR sounding)
   across the region. A few strong multicells and perhaps a transient
   supercell may evolve with time, with a threat of locally damaging
   wind and possibly marginal hail. 

   Convective outflow will help to move storms west across the
   peninsula with time, with some loosely organized clustering possible
   later this afternoon.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   25958098 26718155 28148189 29138241 29658249 30278226
               30468202 30368162 29158098 27388030 26608005 26248006
               26038010 25958098 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN