Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1466

   Mesoscale Discussion 1466
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast OH...northwest PA...western NY...northern
   WV Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 271647Z - 271845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently intensified
   near/north of Cleveland. With some heating/destabilization ongoing
   downstream of this cluster, maintenance or some intensification of
   these storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon, with additional
   development possible farther south with time across eastern OH into
   western PA. 

   Deep-layer shear is rather weak, but MLCAPE increasing above 1500
   J/kg, 20-30 kt of southwesterly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer, and
   gradually steepening low-level lapse rates could support localized
   strong/damaging gusts through the afternoon. The greatest short-term
   threat is expected near Lake Erie, but trends will be monitored for
   a potential increase in storm coverage with time.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41888171 42188084 42637998 42667928 41827917 41387914
               40907917 40587947 40138164 40598148 41018139 41278136
               41428143 41888171 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH