Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1459

   Mesoscale Discussion 1459
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465...

   Valid 262031Z - 262200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
   continue through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A convective line has evolved across central into
   northern IA this afternoon, with other smaller clusters gradually
   becoming better organized into southwest IA. Deep-layer shear is
   rather weak, and weakens with southward extent, but unidirectional
   25-35 kt southwest flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer (as noted in the
   KDMX VWP) could support some organized damaging-wind potential. 

   There has been some tendency for outflow to advance ahead of the
   convective line, but any small bowing segments that become oriented
   more orthogonal to the southwesterly low/midlevel flow (such as the
   one across Butler/Grundy Counties, IA) could be more likely to
   produce localized swaths of wind damage through late afternoon.
   Modestly favorable effective SRH could also support a brief tornado
   threat.

   ..Dean.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41959369 42729301 42999270 43139190 43139144 42909146
               42509161 41979203 41589237 40919328 40799467 41569403
               41959369 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH