Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1458

   Mesoscale Discussion 1458
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of extreme northeast IA...southeast
   MN...southwest WI

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 463...

   Valid 261943Z - 262115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues.

   SUMMARY...Both an eastward-moving convective line and developing
   cells ahead of the line could pose a tornado threat this afternoon.
   Localized damaging wind is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has developed from southeast MN
   into north-central IA, with additional cells gradually developing
   east of the line into parts of southwest WI. MLCAPE has increased
   into the 1000-1500 J/kg along and immediately north of the warm
   front, with a more stable environment farther north, where clouds
   have persisted and temperatures are in the 60s F. 

   The broken line moving across far southeast MN earlier produced a
   reported tornado in Freeborn County, and this portion of the line
   will continue to pose a tornado threat as it traverses the warm
   frontal zone, where low-level shear/SRH is locally enhanced (as
   noted in the KARX VWP). The developing cells east of the line could
   also begin to pose a tornado threat, especially if one or more of
   these cells can mature and take on more of a front-parallel motion,
   leading to increased residence time in the frontal zone. Cell
   mergers into the primary line could also result in locally increased
   tornado potential. 

   Aside from the tornado potential, locally damaging wind will
   continue to be possible with the primary convective line as it moves
   eastward this afternoon.

   ..Dean.. 06/26/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016
               43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH